June 5th, 2021
Belmont Stakes (G1) - Presented by NYRA Bets
1 1/2 Miles - Dirt
Belmont Park, Elmont, NY
Race #11 - Post Time: 6:49 ET
(For our free Lundin Line picks for all the races today @ Belmont Park, along with our Best Bets - Click HERE )
As you make your final selections for your Belmont Stakes tickets, here are some brief notes of what we like & don't like for the field of 8. Have fun putting together those winning (đ€đ») exotic wagers or picking the winner of the 153rd Test of the Champion.
đđŸ#1 Bourbonic
(Bernardini/Dancing Afleet)
M/L : 15-1
Like:
1) While Bourbonic's success at the Wood Memorial is looking like a 1 off, we can't deny a repeat performance if he get's the perfect trip.
2) Bourbonic's sustained running is better suited for the Belmont than a horse with an early running style.
3) Todd Pletcher with jockey Kendrick Carmouche over the past year (61 starts) are winning at 70% & have a +99% ROI
Don't Like:
1) Equibase Avg. speed of 81 puts him 6th/8
2) Disappointing performance in the Derby.
3) On paper, looks to be out of his class against this field.
đđŸ#2 Essential Quality
(Tapit/Delightful Quality)
M/L : 2-1
Like:
1) Every bit the extremely impressive horse that headed into the Derby despite the 4th place finish.
2) Pedigree. Essential Quality's dad sired two Belmont winners - Tonalist (2014) & Tapwrit (2017). He has been bred for this distance.
3) The layoff by not running in the Preakness, should be a plus
4) The numbers predict a winner from the Derby (or a Belmont first time shooter.)
Don't Like:
1) Going into the KY Derby, we could find no wrong with Essential Quality. While that didn't turn out as we expected, we once again would have to search to find something we don't like about the gray colt.
đđŸ#3 Rombauer
(Twirling Candy/Cashmere )
M/L : 3-1
Like:
1) The impressive win in this year's Preakness.
2) Eq. avg. Speed of 91 is 4th/8
3) A horse that appears to be improving at the right time.
Don't Like:
1) Over the past 35 Belmont Stakes, only 1 out 27 starters has won coming from the Preakness without running in the Derby.
2) Not bred for this distance.
3) Can't deny that Rombauer would have been a more attractive pick had Prat stayed in the reins.
đđŸ#4 Hot Rod Charlie
(Oxbow/Indian Miss )
M/L : 7-2
Like:
1) Negotiated traffic in the Derby & had to go wide but used tactical speed to finish 3rd.
2) Appeared to have enough in the tank in the Derby to handle Belmont's 1 1/2 miles.
3) Should benefit from the layoff by skipping the Preakness.
4) Is probably the most comfortable horse in the field with racing on different tracks.
5) Jockey Flavian Prat returns after having ridden HRC in the Derby.
Don't Like:
1) Should he try to race from the front, the numbers don't favor him, as only 3 horses in the last 35 races have won with an early running style.
2) In Stakes races over the last year (121 starts), trainer Doug O'Neill is only winning at 5% with a -49% ROI.
đđŸ#5 France Go de Ina
(Will Take Charge/Dreamy Blues)
M/L : 30-1
Like:
1) Before weakening in the Preakness, did prove his speed was a match for the field despite the lack of races in the U.S.
2) According to trainer Hideyuki Mori, Belmont's main track ("Big Sandy") is very similar to many of the tracks in France Go de Ina's home of Japan.
3) Tough as nails jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.. who quickly recovered after being thrown in R4 @ Churchill Downs on Fri. (6/4) & went on to win his next race.
Don't Like:
1) As mentioned earlier, early running styles are not favorable in the Belmont.
2) The disappointing performance in the UAE Derby & the ultimate weakening in the Preakness.
3) There is just no compelling reason to predict this horse will win or even be worth using to fill out one of your exotic bets.
đđŸ#6 Known Agenda
(Curlin/Byrama )
M/L : 6-1
Like:
1) Pedigree: This son of Curlin has been bred for this distance.
2) We see Known Agenda's win in the Florida Derby as more indicative of what this horse is capable of then the difficult trip, 9th place finish in the KY Derby.
3) A Bullet Work of 5f on May 28th at Belmont.
4) Equibase Avg. Speed of 93 has him 2nd/8
Don't Like:
1) The obvious - With Irad Ortiz Jr. out as jockey & Velazquez & Carmouche already ridding other horses, whoever is named will be riding Known Agenda for the first time in the final leg of the triple crown.
2) Still some lingering question marks as to Known Agenda's natural Class. His Avg. Class Rating of 95 puts him 5th/8.
đđŸ#7 Rock Your World
(Candy Ride/Charm the Maker)
M/L : 9-2
Like:
1) Speed. Rock Your World's Eq. Av. Speed of 93 is 2nd/8. Couple that with his performance and "pressured pace" in the Santa Anita Derby and we should have our pace setter for this year's Belmont.
2) Like with Known Agenda, we see the Santa Anita Derby win as more of a true indicator of this horse's ability than the slow start, bumper car, fade out trip he had in the KY Derby.
3) A bullet work on May 21st @ 5f at Santa Anita.
Don't Like:
1) Speed. It won't surprise if/when jockey Joel Rosario has Rock Your World in front at the beginning of this race but once again, an early running style & running wire-to-wire isn't common in the Belmont. Possible? Yes - but does anyone think Rock Your World has what Justify had?
2) Rosario over the last 10 days (39 starts) has a -67% ROI & trainer John Sadler over the last year (37 starts) has a -48% ROI.
3) A bit of concern as to whether his breeding will handle this distance.
đđŸ#8 Overtook
(Curlin/Got Lucky )
M/L : 20-1
Like:
1) Pedigree: As a son of Curlin, the 1 1/2 mi. distance should be in his wheelhouse.
2) Overtook's last race was a 3rd place finish in the Peter Pan S. & there is precedent for horses coming out of the Peter Pan who've gone on to win the Belmont - most recently - Sir Winston (2019) & Tonalist (2014)
Don't Like:
1) Whether Avg. Eq. Speed (81, 6th/8), Avg. Class Rating (92, 7th/8), or only 1 win, a Maiden Special Weight race against a much less talented filed, Overtook looks to be (no pun intended) over his his head against the field in this year's Belmont S.
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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