May 15, 2021
1 Million Preakness S. (G1)
Pimlico Race Course
Race #13 - Post time: 6:47 ET
For our Preakness Day Post with our Free Lundin Line picks & best bets for all 14 races today at Pimlico, Click HERE
As you make your final selections for your Preakness tickets, here are some brief notes of what we like & don't like for the field of 10. Have fun putting together those winning (🤞🏻) exotic wagers or picking the winner of the 146th "Run for the Black-Eyed Susans"🌻🏇🏾💰
🏇🏾# 1 Ram
(American Pharaoh / Miner's Secret)
M/L : 30-1
Like:
1) Wins in last 2 races & was very impressive in last race (Alw in R1 @ CD on Derby Day)
2) Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.'s 44% win rate & +142% ROI over the last 10 days (18 starts)
3) Trainer D. Wayne Lucas' Preakness record (45 entrants: 6 wins, 2 seconds, 5 thirds)
Don't Like:
1) This will be Ram's first Stakes race.
2) Avg. Equibase Speed of 71 is 9th/10
3) May be at/near the lead in the beginning but lack of speed is a big concern.
🏇🏾# 2 Keepmeinmind
(Laoban / Inclination)
M/L : 15-1
Like:
1) Avg. Eq. Speed of 90 puts him 4th/10 & 3rd/10 in Avg. Class
2) Came from last in the Derby to finish 7th.
3) Jockey David Cohen's 20% Wins over the last 30 days (46 starts)
Don't Like:
1) Despite the nice effort in the Derby, has not been running well this year.
2) Will need a faster than projected pace with his sustained running style.
3) Lack of Preakness experience for both Cohen & trainer Robertino Diodoro (1st for both)
🏇🏾# 3 Medina Spirit
(Protonico / Mongolian Changa)
M/L : 9-5
Like:
1) See: this year's Kentucky Derby.
2) Avg. Speed of 102 is 2nd/10, 111 Eq. Speed in Derby. Avg. Class of 101 is 1st/10
3) Bob Baffert's 7 Preakness Wins (tied for 1st)
4) Is the only horse in the field that "needs" the lead
Don't Like:
1) Has never raced with this short of time in between races (avg. is 1 month)
2) Does not fare well if he can't get the lead.
🏇🏾# 4 Crowded Trade
(More Than Ready / Maude S)
M/L : 10-1
Like:
1) Has been right there in last 2 races (2nd in the Gotham & 3rd in the Wood Mem.)
2) Showed the ability to stretch out to 1 1/6 in the Wood Mem. against Dynamic One & the long shot winner Bourbonic
3) Avg. Eq. Speed of 99 is 3rd/10
Don't Like:
1) Will only be his 4th career start, with his only win @ 6f.
2) Jockey Javier Castellano has 0 wins over the last 10 days (19 starts) & is only @ 13% wins over the the last 30 days (77 starts)
3) Will be relying on a speed duel from the leaders.
🏇🏾# 5 Midnight Bourbon
(Tiznow / Catch the Moon)
M/L : 5-1
Like:
1) Even with a difficult trip in the Derby (wide on both turns) & having to race from behind, managed a gutsy 6th place finish
2) With the exception of the Derby, ITM in all his races (8 career starts: 2-2-3) & did beat Proxy & Mandaloun in the Lecomte S. in Jan. @ Fair Grounds
3) Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.'s 28% Wins over the last 30 days (107 starts)
4) Trainer Steve Asmussen has 2 Preakness wins & 2 thirds.
Don't Like:
1) Avg. Speed of 86 (6th/10) in this field is a bit concerning.
2) In 17 starts, Asmussen & I. Ortiz Jr. are wining at only 12% & have a -80% ROI.
🏇🏾# 6 Rombauer
(Twirling Candy / Cashmere)
M/L : 12-1
Like:
1) Even after a bump at the start of the Blue Grass, was able to finish 3rd to Essential Quality & Highly Motivated, earning a career high 100 Eq. Speed Figure.
2) Avg. Eq. Speed of 89 has him right in the middle of the field.
3) Jockey Flavian Prat has a 25% win rate over the last 10 days (28 starts). Prat & trainer Michael McCarthy are ITM at 58% with a +24% ROI (19 starts)
4) Consistent runner on turf, synthetic & dirt surfaces.
Don't Like:
1) Unless he takes on the role of a presser as in the Blue Grass, will need the pace to be faster than projected.
2) Has never won on dirt.
3) First Preakness for all of Rombaurer's connections
🏇🏾# 7 France Go de Ina
(Will Take Charge / Dreamy Blues)
M/L : 20-1
Like:
1) Bred for distance.
2) Will have Jockey Joel Rosario back at the reigns coming of the UAE Derby. Rosario is winning at 35%, ITM at 52%, with a +53% ROI over the last 10 days (31 starts)
3) Rosario could put him right in the mix with Medina Spirit, Concert Tour & Midnight Bourbon.
Don't Like:
1) The obvious question marks for a horse making his first start in the U.S.
2) The 6th place finish in the UAE Derby due mostly to a lack of late speed.
🏇🏾# 8 Unbridled Honor
(Honor Code / Silvery Starlet)
M/L : 15-1
Like:
1) Despite an avg. Eq. Speed of 83 (8th/10), showed much improvement in his last race (Lexington) earning a career high 98.
2) Another horse bred for this distance & showing the ability to close from behind - 9th to 2nd in the Lexington & 10th to 4th in the S. Tampa Bay Derby.
3) Trainer Todd Pletcher with Jockey Luis Saez are winning at 27% over the past year (149 starts).
Don't Like:
1) Only win was against lesser competition in Maiden Special Weight race at Tampa in Feb.
2) Uncertainty of whether he'll show further development in speed or regress.
3) Yet another horse relying on a speed duel at the front.
🏇🏾# 9 Risk Taking
(Medaglia d'Oro / Run a Risk)
M/L : 15-1
Like:
1) Won the Withers S. by 3 3/4 at Aqueduct on Feb. 6th
2) His Early/Presser style will/should place him in a favorable position.
3) Jockey Jose Ortiz is winning at 24%, ITM at 58 with a +24% ROI over the last 30 days (107 starts)
Don't Like:
1) The disappointing 7th place finish in the Wood Mem. when he came in as the favorite.
2) Earned a 102 Eq. Speed in the Withers but is 7th/10 for this race with an 85.
3) Another horse with a big question mark - Was the poor showing in the Wood Mem. an aberration or not?
🏇🏾# 10 Concert Tour
(Street Sense / Purse Strings)
M/L : 5-2
Like:
1) The impressive 3-0 start to his career including wins in the G2 San Vicente in Feb. & the G1 Rebel in Mar. over Hozier & Big Lake.
2) Two back-to-back 105 Eq. Speed figures in those Stakes wins & leads this field with an avg. Speed of 103.
3) Even from the 10th position, should have no problem securing the lead or be right off the lead.
4) The layoff by skipping the Derby should help.
5) Despite the ongoing controversy, Bob Baffert knows how to prepare his horses for the Preakness.
Don't Like:
1) Not sure how much to read into the disappointing 3rd place finish in the AR Derby.
2) Mike Smith is not coming into the Preakness in top form.
3) Concern that Smith allows Concert Tour to start a speed duel with Medina Spirt, Midnight Bourbon or another horse willing to join in, which will certainly bring almost the entire rest of the field into play.
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
Comments