It is football eve and I needed something to distract me from the day so I found five #HomeRunLine plays today!!! Coach JJ threw out the first pitch today and asked me what I thought. Normally I would have been on these sooner but well life gets in the way of us having fun sometimes. I dug deep after a weak performance yesterday as the Mets and Cubs could not close out their leads in the 5th. No worries because we are still net positive after the Pirates come in strong for a nice cash. Still negative on the day but not on the season. We have even more games on the slate today. Best of luck if you follow or fade!!!
Record: 18-15-1 for +3.4 units
Texas/New York Yankees
F5 Under 5 (-115)
I won't lie I saw this one and instantly thought I would be on the Yankees which would have been a no play with all that juice you have to lay for any New York team in baseball. I did not want to waste a home start from Kluber though so I dug deeper. I found that Kluber is superior at home and found he has only given up 9 runs over 7 starts at home. He has pitched 25 total innings in that span so it leads me to believe he will not be giving up much in the F5. But Fink, what about that potent Yankees lineup? Well, the Rangers are marching out Taylor Hearn who is better away than at home. While I do think the Yankees will hit the ball I do not see Hearn giving up more than 3 runs meaning we just need Kluber to be his normal self to cash here.
New York Mets/Boston
F5 Under 5 (-110)
The full analysis of this could be it's Chris Sale day and I could end it there. However, that is not fair to do to y'all! Sale is Sale and he is dominant overall, especially at home. While I don't like to play pitchers that recently had the Rona as we saw some terrible performances after but Sale seems to be different. The Mets put Taijuan Walker on the bump and he is kind of up and down but whenever a pitcher has not faced a team previously in the season, I like their chances the first two times through the lineup. With Sale locking down the deflated Mets and Walker being just good enough we should see a low scoring F5.
Chicago Cubs
F5 ML (-105)
This is simply a play on Hendricks. If he gives up zero runs we cannot lose here. I am not predicting a shutout, I am simply giving the best case scenario here. I just don't believe in the Twins lineup enough to not side with the Cubbies here. Joe Ryan's only start vs the cubs this year did not go well. While he had 5 Ks in 5 innings, he also gave up 3 runs and that was at home! This is only his fourth game in the big leagues so I do not see him out shinning Hendricks.
Atlanta Braves
F5 -1/2 (-110)
It's the Diamondbacks, so why not fade them!!! When I saw this line as a coin flip, I knew I had to dig into it. The Braves as trying to close out a great comeback and win the division. The Dbacks are just hoping the season ends soon. Ian Anderson has not pitched against Arizona this year and as noted above I like the edge this gives a pitcher. Merrill Kelly hasn't faced the Braves either so why would I lay anything against him if I like pitchers on that narrative? Well, see the first sentence of this paragraph.
Seattle Mariners
F5 ML (+115)
Coach JJ called it because he knows I love my boy Flexen in the F5!!! Flexen has not been great on the road this year so I had to go deeper to find some reasons to play this as I almost laid off this investment. Oakland has gotten to Flexen at times this year but when he pitches in Oakland, he has been lights out!!! It's only one game but I would say Oakland is a pitcher's ballpark which gives Flexen some help. What I do like is Irvin has been terrible vs Seattle all year. Over the last two months, he has struggled just like the A's have at times so with that and Flexen going I thought I would be a fool not to throw this one on there.
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