Happy Saturday, Arkansas Derby Day & National Pita Day! a
We told you it would be a huge and busy day, so let's not waste any time! Our next card is less than an hour after Gulfstream kicks off, and we're heading back to Hot Springs, AK, to tackle this stacked card from Oaklawn Park. We're eager to turn things around today, as yesterday was not kind to us—only 3 of our top picks won their races, resulting in a loss of $4.60, which translates to a -20.9% ROI. If you played our top two picks to win, you ended up with 4 winners out of 11, leading to a loss of $19.60 and a -44.5% ROI. It wasn't our best outing, but we noted our focus on today and hope to do better. We won't overextend ourselves trying to recover losses in a single swing; instead, we'll look for opportunities to cash tickets.
Today, we have 14 races lined up, including six stakes races as well as one Oaks prep and one Derby prep, as we mentioned in our last post. First up, the ladies are set to compete in the 12th race, also known as the Fantasy Stakes. This is a Grade II stakes race, featuring a $750,000 purse for three-year-old fillies running 1 and 1/16 miles on dirt. There are nine runners, as one horse has scratched, and with this many entries, we should see a highly competitive race. Following this, we have the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby. This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds, also covering a distance of 1 and 1/8 miles on dirt, with a field of nine runners. There are multiple top-ranked horses in this race that could be nearly as talented as those in the Derby in May.
Reflecting on the past, this track played a key role in Turtle Sports' decision to take off in 2020. That year, the Arkansas Derby was divided into two divisions to ensure enough points for the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, as the pandemic had forced many tracks to close and postponed the Derby. It evokes a bit of nostalgia for us, especially since a couple of our founders hold future Derby tickets on horses running today at Oaklawn Park, so we will be closely watching to see if we've made a wise investment.
As for the weather, it's better than we expected, with highs in the mid-70s. Reports from the track indicate that the rain should hold off, and the sun may even make an appearance. Oaklawn Park only has a dirt track, which is rated muddy to start, but there's hope that by the time we reach our prep races, the track rating will improve, allowing for some of the speed we anticipated when analyzing this card to shine through.
The Arkansas Derby was first run in 1936 and has since grown into one of the most important prep races for the Kentucky Derby. Originally offering a modest purse, the race steadily gained prominence as Oaklawn Park developed into a premier racing venue. Over the decades, it has attracted elite three-year-old Thoroughbreds, with several winners, such as Smarty Jones, American Pharoah, and Curlin, going on to achieve success in Triple Crown races. The race distance has remained at 1 1/8 miles since its inception, and in 2004, its prestige was further solidified when Smarty Jones won both the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Today, with a multimillion-dollar purse and crucial Kentucky Derby qualifying points at stake, the Arkansas Derby continues to be a pivotal event on the road to the first Saturday in May.
Need help pickin' winners? We've got you covered! Our Lundin Line's - (Always Free) top picks and best bets are below in this post. We use them to help narrow the field while putting our tickets together. The first post will be here soon, so don't be late -
It's time to get #InTheMoney! 💰💰💰
Oaklawn Park 🏇🏾 // Sat., Mar. 29th, 2025
First Post @ 11:20 CDT/ 9:20 (PDT)
R1: 9-7-10-3
R2: 4-7-10-5
R3: 3⭑-1-10-11
R4: 8-7-11-6
R5: 6-4-1-5
R6Ⓢ: 4-1-6
R7: 2-10-5-9
R8Ⓢ: 3⭑-8-7-1
R9: 4-3-2-8
R10Ⓢ: 5-6-3-10
R11Ⓢ: 1-6-9-4
R12Ⓢ/OP: 5-7-2-10
Mr. Fink: 5-7-2-6
Mr. W: 7-5-2-10
R13Ⓢ/DP: 8-6-5-9
Mr. Fink: 8-6-5-9
Mr. W: 9-5-6-8
R14: 2-4-11-9
🏇 = Featured Race(s)
⭑Best Bet(s)
R3: Willy Cuts (#3)
R8: Banishing (#3)
Ⓢtakes Races
R6: 250K Matron S.
R8: 500K Oaklawn Mile S. (G3)
R10: 145K Eclipse Overnight S.
R11: 145K Am. Pharoah Overnight S.
🏇R12: 750K Fantasy S. (G2)/OP
1 1/16 Miles on Dirt for Files, 3 Yr. Old
KY Oaks Prep: Pts. = 100-50-25-15-10
🏇R13: 1.5 Mil. Arkansas Derby (G1)/DP
1 1/8 Miles on Dirt for 3 Yr. Olds
KY Derby Prep: Pts. = 100-50-25-15-10
Photo from our friends at National Day Calendar
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
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-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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