Sat., April 3, 2021
Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA
Race 8 @ 4:15 PDT
Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1)
The Road to the KY Derby Points: 100-40-20-10
For our #LundinLine picks for ALL races today @ Santa Anita, click HERE!
For our analysis of the Wood Memorial S. @ Aqueduct, click HERE!
Fo our analysis of the Toyota Blue Grass S. @ Kenneland, click HERE!
đđŸ# 1 Roman Centurian
(Empire Maker/Spare Change)
M/L : 8/1
Like:
1) Finished 4th in San Felipe S. @ SA on Mar. 6th
(1) Life Is Good, 2) Medina Spirit, 3) Dream Shake
2) 2nd in Robert B. Lewis S. @ SA on Jan. 30th & earning highest Eq. Speed of 97
3) Avg. Speed of 87 is 5th/10
Don't Like:
1) Poor Early & Middle Pace Ratings (7th/10 in both)
2) Over last 30 days (9 starts), Trainer Simon Callaghan has 0 Wins & -100% ROI
3) No challenge to Median Spirit in last race
đđŸ# 2 Dream Shake
(Twirling Candy / Even Song)
M/L : 7/2
Like:
1) Won debut race & 3rd in San Felipe S. @ SA on Mar. 6th (1 1/16)
2) Earned a 94 Eq. Speed in San Felipe
3) Over last 30 days (81 starts), Jockey Flavien Prat is Winning @ 38%
Don't Like:
1) Only 3rd career race & only 2nd at this distance.
2) Was beaten badly in San Felipe (albeit to Life Is Good)
3) Trainer Peter Eurton has 0 Wins in Stakes over the past year (24 starts)
đđŸ# 3 Rock Your World
(Candy Ride / Charm Maker)
M/L : 4/1
Like:
1) Back-to-Back Wins to start career. (last: Pasadena S. @ SA on Feb. 27th (1 mi.))
2) 2 starts - but - Avg. Speed (96) & Finish Pace (98) are both 2nd/10
3) Jockey Umberto Rospoli Winning @ 27% over last 10 days (15 starts
Don't Like:
1) First time running on dirt.
2) Up In Class from 100K Stakes to G1 Stakes
3) Trainer John Sadler's has -51% ROI with horses coming of this length layoff.
đđŸ# 4 Parnelli
(Quality Road/Sip Sip)
M/L : 20/1
Like:
1) 3rd in G3 Sham S. @ SA on Jan. 2 (1 mi.)
2) Trainer John Shirreffs is Winning @ 38% over the last 30 days (8 starts)
3) ITM in 5 career races except for 5th place in Robert B. Lewis S. on Jan. 30th.
Don't Like:
1) Avg. Speed of 85 is 7th/10 and Finish Pace is 88 (8th/10)
2) Shirreffs has 0 starts with Jockey Edwin Maldonado
3) Disappointing trip in Robert B. Lewis.
đđŸ# 5 Back Ring Luck
(Malibu Moon/Patti O'Rahy)
M/L : 20/1
Like:
1) Back-to-back Wins in last 2 starts
2) Trainer John W. Sadler is Winning @ 23% over last 30 days (44 starts)
3) Earned highest Speed fig. (97) in last race (62.5K Aoc @ OP on Mar. 5th - 1 1/6)
Don't Like:
1) Ave. Speed of 55 is 10th/10 & Very poor Pace Ratings
2) Jockey Tyler Baze is Wining @ only 8% over the last 10 days (12 starts)
3) Moving Up In Class to first Stakes, a G1 Stakes.
đđŸ# 6 Ottothelegend
(Uncle Mo/House of Danzing)
M/L : 12/1
Like:
1) Won last race (86K Msw @ OP on Mar. 6th - 1 1/16)
2) Jockey Mario Gutierrez is Winning @ 25% over last 10 days (8 starts)
3) Avg. Speed of 86 is middle of the pack (6th/10)
Don't Like:
1) Poor Pace Ratings
2) Moving Up In Class to first Stakes.
3) Trainer Steven Asmussen has 0 starts with Gutierrez
đđŸ# 7 Medina Spirit
(Protonica/Mongolian Changa)
M/L : 5/2
Like:
1) Won or Placed in 4 career starts (last was a 2nd in the San Filipe S. to Life Is Good on Mar. 6th)
2) Won the Robert B. Lewis S. @ SA on Jan. 30th
3) 1st/10 in Avg. Speed & Early, Middle & Finish Pace
4) 109 Speed fig. in 2nd place finish in Sham S. @ SA on Jan. 2nd
5) Trainer Bob Baffert is Winning @ 33% over the last 30 days (30 starts)
Don't Like:
1) Beaten by 8 lengths in the San Felipe S. to Life Is Good
2) Jockey John Velazquez has 0 Wins & a -100% ROI over the last 10 days (9 starts)
đđŸ# 8 Law Professor
(Constitution/Haunted Heroine)
M/L : 10/1
Like:
1) Won last race (61K Msw @ SA on Mar. 5th @ 1 m.)
2) Strong Pace Ratings
3) Jockey Kent Desormeaux is Winning @ 40% over the last 10 days (5 starts)
Don't Like:
1) Avg. Speed of 74 is 9th/10
2) Only 2 career starts & moving Up In Class to first Stakes race.
3) Only 1 start for Trainer Michael McCarthy & Desormeaux - (wasn't ITM)
đđŸ# 9 The Great One
(Nyquist/Little Ms. Protocol)
M/L : 8/1
Like:
1) Near the top of the field in Avg. Speed (91 - 3rd/10) & Pace Ratings
2) 5 of 6 career starts at 1+ mi. (2 on turf, 3 on dirt).
3) Highest Speed of 104 earned in Win on Jan. 23 @ SA (61K Msw)
Don't Like:
1) Disappointing 5th place finish in San Felipe S. as he "weakened"
2) Trainer Doug O'Neill w/ Jockey Abel Cedillo have a -60% ROI over the last year (108 starts)
3) Cedillo has 0 Wins over the last 10 days (19 starts)
đđŸ# 10 Defunded
(Dialed In/Wind Caper)
M/L : 8/1
Like:
1) Won last race (76K Msw @ SA on Mar. 6th -6f)
2) Earned a 94 Speed fig. in last race.
3) Trainer Bob Baffert is Winning @ 33% over the last 30 days (30 starts)
Don't Like:
1) First race at this distance & first Stakes race.
2) Jockey Mike Smith is only Winning @ 5% & a -92% ROI over last 30 days (19 starts)
3) Biggest unknown in today's field - ?????
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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