Sat., April 3, 2021
Keeneland Race Course / Lexington, KY
Race 11 @ 3:35 EDT
800K Toyota Blue Grass S. (G2)
The Road To The KY Derby Points: 100-40-20-10
For our Lundin Line picks for ALL the races today @ Keeneland, click HERE!
For our analysis of the Wood Memorial S. @ Aqueduct, click HERE!
For our analysis of the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, click HERE!
đđŸ# 1 Hidden Stash
(Constitution/Making Mark Money)
M/L: 20/1
Like:
1) In 6 career starts, only 1 finish not ITM (4th on 8/30/20 (first race))
2) Finished 2nd in last race - G2 S. Tampa Derby on Mar. 6th (Helium Won).
3) Earned highest Eq. Speed of 93 @ in S. Tam. Derby.
Don't Like:
1) Trainer Victoria Oliver has 0 Wins & a -100% ROI in Stakes races.
2) Avg. Finish Pace Rating is 89 (6th/9)
3) Pace projection for the race may not favor his running style.
đđŸ# 2 Untreated
(Nyquist/Fully Living)
M/L: 10/1
Like:
1) Won by 8 3/4 lengths in last start (36K Msw @ Tampa on Mar. 6th) & earner a 101 Eq. Speed figure.
2) Strong Avg. Finish Pace of 100 (2nd/9)
3) Over the last 30 days (59 starts), Trainer Todd Pletcher is Winning @ 22%.
Don't Like:
1) Moving Up In Class for his first Stakes race.
2) 6th place finish in first (& only other) race.
3) Over last year (13 starts), Pletcher w/ Jockey Joel Rosarion have a -62% ROI)
đđŸ# 3 Highly Motivated
(Into Mischief /Strong Incentive)
M/L : 3/1
Like:
1) Won Nyquest S. on 11/6 @ Keeneland & 3rd in last race (G3 Gotham S. @ Aqu @ 1 mi.)
2) Avg. Speed = 96 (2nd/9) & Finish Pace = 102 (1st/9)
3) Strong Winning % over last 30 days for Jockey Javier Castellano (26%) & Trainer Chad C. Brown ( 25%)
Don't Like:
1) Only 2nd race at 1+ mile.
2) 8th/9 in Early Pace (67)
đđŸ# 4 Essential Quality
(Tapit / Delightful Quality)
M/L : 3/5
Like:
1) Unbeaten (4 starts) including G1 TVG Breeders' Cup & G1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity.
2) In last race, G3 Southwest S. @ OP on Feb.27, earned his highest Speed of 105
3) Trainer Brad Cox w/ Jockey Luis Saez over the last year (24 starts) Winning @ 38%, ITM @ 67%, ROI @ +42%
Don't Like:
1) We'll be honest - There is nothing we found to dislike about him.
đđŸ# 5 Rombauer
(Twirling Candy / Cashmere)
M/L : 15/1
Like:
1) Last race a Win in the El Camino Real Derby @ Golden Gate.
2) Leads field in Early & Middle Pace (4th/9 in Finish Pace)
3) Over Last 10 days (19 starts), Jockey Florent Geroux is Winning @ 26%
Don't Like:
1) Only 1 race on dirt (5th place in TVG Breeder's Cup on Nov. 20th.)
2) Unimpressive trip in TVG Breeders' Cup.
đđŸ# 6 Leblon
(Broken Vow / Trade Balance)
M/L : 50/1
Like:
1) ITM in 4 out 5 career starts.
2) Well raced & competitive at this distance.
3) Earned his highest Speed figure (96) in last Race (2/11 @ OP @ 1 1/6)
Don't Like:
1) Avg. Speed of 75 is 9th/9
2) Up in Class to his first Stakes Race.
3) Jockey Albin Jimenez over last 30 days (38 starts) Winning @ 8%
đđŸ# 7 Hush of a Storm
(Creative Cause / Hush Now)
M/L : 15/1
Like:
1) After a disappointing debut, unbeaten since Dec.
2) Last race - a Win in the J. Battaglia S @ Turfway on Feb. 26th (Like the King was 2nd)
3) Trainer William Morey is Winning @ 30% over the last 30 days (20 starts)
Don't Like:
1) Middle of pack in Pace Ratings & Avg. Speed of 83 (6th/9)
2) Over last 10 days (27 starts), Jockey Santiago Gonzalez is Winning @ 4%, ROI @ -89%
đđŸ# 8 Sittin On Go
(Brody's Cause / Set'n On Ready)
M/L : 30/1
Like:
1) Trainer Dale Romans with Jockey Corey Lanerie (58 start) have a +11% ROI
2) Romans' horses do well when moving Up In Class. (Winning @ 13% over past year)
Don't Like:
1) Not competitive since last Win on Sept. 5th @ G3 Iroquis S @ Churchill Downs.
2) Avg. Speed of 81 is 8th/9
3) Over last 30 days (118 starts), Jockey Lanerie Winning @ 8%
đđŸ# 9 Keepmeinmend
(Laoban / Inclination)
M/L : 8/1
Like:
1) Won the G2 KY Jockey Club S. on Nov 28th @ Churchill Downs (1 1/16)
2) Avg. Speed of 89 is 3rd/9
3) ITM in 4 out of 5 career races
Don't Like:
1) Finished 6th/8 last race (G2 Rebel S. @ OP on 3/13) after he "failed to fire"
2) Avg. Finish Pace = 89 (8th/9)
3) At this distance/surface over the last year (187 starts), Jockey David Cohen has a -57% ROI
Hit us up @_TurtleSports and let us know what you think!
-TSL
/ As always, please forgive any typos and grammatical errors
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